Leta i den här bloggen


The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve: why it matters

The existence, and recent disappearance, of the Phillips Curve is the hottest topic among macro investors and policy makers at the moment.

Gavyn Davies' blog, 22 October 2017

Zhou Xiaochuan, the long-serving and respected governor of the People's Bank of China, raised eyebrows last week

when he cautioned that the country could have a "Minsky Moment" if "we are too optimistic when things go smoothly."

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg 23 October 2017


There is one economist whose name is on everyone's lips today. Hyman Minsky

The phrase was never used in the FT until early 2007. It has now appeared more than 80 times. 

The reason for this is that the Lehman crisis provided us with a perfect, textbook example of a Minsky Moment.

John Authers, FT 29 October 2017


China’s central bank governor used the Communist party congress to caution a possible “Minsky moment”.

China’s central bank governor has warned in unusually stark language of the risks from excessive debt and speculative investment, as he used the Communist party congress to caution that the country’s fast-growing economy faced a possible “Minsky moment”.

FT 19 October 2017


ECB bondbuying, handled largely by national central banks, which purchase their own governments’ bonds

The vast bond-buying operations nominally undertaken by the ECB in recent years 

have been handled largely by national central banks, which purchase their own governments’ bonds.

Daniel Gros, Procect Syndicate 11 October 2017


DN-ledare: Frågan har ju alltid varit när och inte om bostadskarusellen i storstäderna kommer att hejdas.

Den svenska hyresregleringen tenderar att låsa in folk där de bor. 
De som inte har etablerat sig är utfrysta.

Vår skeva skattestruktur gör det samtidigt billigt att låna och bo, men dyrt att flytta från en villa eller bostadsrätt. Flyttkedjorna blir kortare, trögare. 

Det vore därför inte så konstigt om den nya byggboomen slutade i en paradox: fina lägenheter som gapar tomma, och fortsatt stor bostadsbrist.

DN-ledare 14 oktober 2017

‘The risks have definitely increased’ – Sweden’s housing boom wobbles

More likely are rising inflation, a sharp rise in interest rates, a higher dollar and a huge surge in the US current account deficit.


World’s top economists worry about tools to fight economic downturn

The question is whether there are enough weapons to fight the next crisis when it comes

With interest rate cuts unlikely to be sufficiently effective in another downturn because they will not start high enough, Mr Blanchard and Lawrence Summers, the former treasury secretary, advocated much more effective and planned use of fiscal policy. 

In a joint presentation, they called for governments to put in place plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus in the event of a downturn.

FT 13 October 2017


The US economy looked eerily similar in late 1965

The edifice of hyper-valued assets across the world is built on one elemental premise: that US inflation is dead, and therefore that the US Federal Reserve will continue to bathe international finance with dollar liquidity. 
We have been here before. The US economy looked eerily similar in late 1965. The jobless rate had fallen to 4.2pc - exactly where it is now - without a flicker of wage pressure.
It was the calm before the storm. Powerful forces were building below the surface. The US was on the cusp of the Great Inflation. Wall Street equities lost almost 60pc of their value in real terms over the next decade. 
Bondholders were slaughtered. 
The collective market bet is that this time is different.

The pundits may finally be right about the dollar

Pundits have been saying last rites for the dollar’s global dominance since the 1960s – that is, for more than half a century now. 

But the pundits may finally be right

Barry Eichengreen, Project Syndiate 11 October 2017

Central bankers face a crisis of confidence as models fail

Inflation is not behaving in the way economic models predicted.

“the link between measures of domestic slack and inflation has proved rather weak and elusive for at least a couple of decades”

(The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level.
John Plender) 

FT 11 October 2017


Fastighetsbolag med exponering mot bostadsrättsmarknaden. JM har backat 21 procent.

Besqab har tappat nästan 28 procent, SSM drygt 39 procent och Oscar Properties Holding nära 37 procent. 

Annika Winsth, chefsekonom på Nordea:  

- I alla län i Sverige har vi haft det högsta byggandet på 25 år.

SvD 11 oktober 2017

Huspriser i Sverige


Martin Wolf on Inflation and stagflation

All this would undermine elevated asset markets and might trigger worries over debt sustainability. In a still fragile world economy, the results might be ugly. One might even see a return to the stagflation of the 1970s, with far lower inflation, but also far higher indebtedness.

The starting point is a puzzle: why is inflation so low when the rate of unemployment is already a little below the level the Fed (and most economists) consider to be “full employment”
(the rate at which inflation should start to accelerate upwards).

Martin Wolf FT 10 October 2017

Wallenstam omvandlar första etappen av ett bostadsrättsprojekt mellan Telefonplan och Älvsjö till hyresrätter.

Solberga ligger mellan Telefonplan och Älvsjö, där det de senaste åren byggts tusentals nya lägenheter, varav många bostadsrätter.

Aftonbladet 9 oktober 2017

Det finns troligen ingen bostadsbubbla i Sverige, eftersom det är dyrare att bo i hyresrätt än i bostadsrätt. Det menar Finanspolitiska rådets ordförande Harry Flam.


Wolfgang Schäuble warns of debt-driven global financial crisis

Central bank policies raise threat of bubbles, says outgoing German finance minister

 His comments come a day after Christine Lagarde warned of “threats on the horizon” from “high levels of debt in many countries to rapid credit expansion in China, to excessive risk-taking in financial markets”.

The BIS warned last month that the world had become so used to cheap credit that higher interest rates could derail the global economic recovery.

Svegfors om Anders Ferm, Tomas Fischer, Rolf Englund och kronkursförsvaret

Tack för tipset AF.

Vi har en väldigt dålig ansvarskultur i svensk politik.
Det mest flagranta exemplet är kronfallet i november 1992.
Och så kallade man detta ett misslyckande och alla satt kvar.
Det menar jag var ett stort moraliskt haveri


Fed has no reliable theory of inflation, says Former Fed governor Tarullo

John Plender: The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level.

FT 4 October 2017


Population growth in Africa

As for Africa, the UN’s mid-point projection puts the population aged 20-65 at 1.3 billion in 2050 and 2.5 billion by 2100, up from 540 million today.



1917 skakades Sverige av hungerkravaller förorsakade av prisreglering på potatis, typ hyresreglering

Hyresregleringen finns fortfarande kvar, fast under annat namn.

1917 skakades Sverige av hungerkravaller. 

Stapelfödan för personer med låg inkomst var potatis. 
För att hålla nere priset på potatis, och hindra bönderna att tjäna pengar, införde regeringen prisreglering på potatis.

Alltså blev det inte lönsamt för bönderna att odla potatis till försäljning. 
Grisarnas vanliga föda var kålrötter. De var inte prisreglerade. 

Så bönderna gav potatisen till grisarna och sålde kålrötterna till de hungriga stadsborna.

Nils-Eric Sandberg, Byggindustrin 20 september 2017

Stockholm och andra svenska storstäder kan bli det Nya Norrland, fast i en ond spiral av utflyttning och bristande affärsunderlag.

När bostäderna stiger i värde konsumerar hushållen ungefär 25 procent av värdestegringen. 

Den konsumtionen försvinner om bostadspriserna inte längre stiger.

Mattias Svensson, Fastighetstidningen 3 oktober 2017

Det är en del, företrädesvis fastighetsmäklare och bankekonomer,  som försöker intala sig själva och oss andra att bostadspriserna kan plana ut.

Men bostadsbubblor, liksom andra bubblor, har en mycket karaktäristisk form.

Det brukar, alltid, se ut så här.