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2017-12-14

Skärpningen av amorteringskravet undantar nyproduktion

Köpstarka bostadsspekulanter med höga löner eller en förmögenhet som ger dem gräddfil till den svenska överhettade bostadsmarknaden är de som gynnas av undantaget för lyxlägenheter. För nyproduktion är i de allra flesta fall just lyxlägenheter.

Det är för att man byggt för dom rikaste som kommunerna kunnat kammat hem ohemula pengar på markförsäljning och bostadsbyggarna kunnat vada i vinster de senaste åren.


2017-12-07

Martin Schulz calls for ‘United States of Europe’

German SPD leader says EU member states must sign up to a federal union or leave the bloc

Martin Schulz told a party conference in Berlin on Thursday that he wanted EU member states to agree a new “constitutional treaty” to establish a federal union and that countries that did not sign up would have to leave the bloc.


FT 7 december 2017

Det tidigare försöket, som väljarna i Frankrike och Nederländerna sade nej till, konventets förslag, som senare ersattes av Lissabonfördraget.

Problemets kärna är att det inte går att ha EMU om man inte vill ha ett Federalt Europa, styrt från Bryssel och Frankfurt, eller om det blir Berlin. 
Rolf Englund, Nya Wermlands-Tidningen, 11 juni 2001

End of an era for irrational complacency in markets

The signs are widespread. 

Yields on European junk bonds have fallen below US Treasuries.

Emerging market countries with a history of default, such as Argentina, have issued 100-year bonds....

2017-12-06

Europe’s banks are stronger than they were, but not strong enough

The European Commission is urging governments and the European Parliament to complete the EU’s banking union by 2019 and thus cut the “doom loop”, in which weak banks and sovereigns drag each other down

One big missing piece is a common European deposit-insurance scheme.



Fallande bopriser ett hot mot hela börsen

Anders Elgemyr analytiker på Jarl Securities har sammanställt en lista över de mest riskfyllda aktierna kopplade till bostäder.
– Men så länge inget systemkritiskt bolag havererar som Nyckeln som drog med sig Gota Bank i början av 90-talet så lär marknaden kunna rida ut stormen. 

I bästa fall återhämtar sig marknaden inom loppet av två år eftersom det finns en stor underliggande efterfrågan i Sverige.

2017-12-05

Stocks and bonds

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is at its 97th percentile relative to the last 130 years.

In the bond market, a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates would lead to a decline of almost $1.2 trillion in the securities underlying the index.

Carl Hammer, chefsstrateg på SEB, tror att kronan kommer att stärkas

eftersom det mest sannolika scenariot är att svenska bostadspriser inte kommer att falla mer än tio procent.

SvD 5 december 2017

Juncker Seeks Greater Commission Control over Eurozone

Turning the ESM into an EU institution should in theory necessitate treaty change, 
but the Commission has come up with a way around that requirement. 


Article 352 of the EU Treaty, a kind of emergency clause, allows the Commission to grant itself competencies it might need.

Spiegel Online 5 December 2017

Republican tax package will definitively put an end to 36-year upswing for Treasuries

With hindsight, we can identify the inflection point as July 5 this year when 10-year Treasuries closed at a rock bottom yield of 1.37 per cent.


John Plender 5 December 2017

More by John Plender at IntCom


Best books of 2017: Economics, Wolf

Martin Wolf selects his must-read titles

FT 1 December 2017

2017-11-30

Offshore Banking Guards Against Tyranny

There are often good reasons for placing money in shadowy accounts abroad.

Professor på KTH efterlyser bostadskrasch

- Det vore bra om vi så snabbt som möjligt kan komma ner till långsiktigt vettiga priser vilket är en halvering av den nivå vi ser nu, säger Hans Lind.

Patricia Hedelius, SvD 30 November 2017

2017-11-28

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling, abbreviated DSGE

The new defense of DSGE


It's so silly that I almost suspect Christiano et al. of staging a false-flag operation to get more people to hate DSGE modelers.


Noah Smith 15 November 2017

I dag är det - tack vare att bostadspriserna ökat - lån på banken som gör att vi har råd att handla och höja vår levnadsstandard

Fyra svenska börsbolag står för nästan hälften - 46 procent - av storbolagens samlade utdelningar. 

Börsbolagen är händelsevis Handelsbanken, Nordea, SEB och Swedbank.
En svensk medelklassfamilj som bor i hus eller bostadsrätt kan nu ta stora lån och betala pyttelite i ränta för att renovera, köpa bilar eller fritidshus.

Det är inte längre för att Sverige säljer bilar, malm och skog som tillväxten ökar. Det är för att våra banker går så bra. 

2017-11-27

What many see as a temporary bubble, pumped up by artificial and unsustainable monetary stimulus, has many more years to run. Kaletsky

maturing into a structural expansion of economic activity, profits, and employment that probably has many more years to run.

By demonstrating the success of monetary stimulus, the US has provided a roadmap that other countries have followed

Anatole Kaletsky, Project Syndicate, 27 November 2017

Janet Yellen lecture on “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers” in April 2009

Janet Yellen expressed early worries about house prices. 

While she did not expect the financial collapse — few did — she understood it better than many as it was under way, to the point of giving a lecture on “A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers” in April 2009.

Martin Sandbu FT 27 November 2017

Lunch with Ben Bernanke 
I turn, finally, to perhaps the biggest question about the crisis. Could they have avoided the failure of Lehman in September 2008? 

Martin Wolf, FT 23 October 2015

“What the human being is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact."

Perhaps the most unhelpful of the psychological flaws we are prone to as investors is confirmation bias.

Our desire to seek out information that reinforces our existing beliefs and to reject anything that undermines our prejudices is powerful and dangerous.


Tom Stevenson Telegraph 10 November 2017


More about the stock market at IntCom.

Claudia Wörmann på SBAB tror inte att en bostadskrasch är förestående

Harry Flam ser inte heller att vi står inför en bostadskrasch.

– Jag tror inte det kommer att bli något större ras, säger han.

Christina Gustavsson, forskare vid institutionen för fastigheter och byggande på KTH, är lite mer försiktig inför framtiden, och menar att frågan om en eventuell bostadskrasch är svår att svara på.

DN 27 November 2017

2017-11-26

Anyone questioning whether financial markets are in a bubble should consider what we witnessed in 2017, Mauldin

• A painting (which may be fake) sold for $450 million.
• Bitcoin (which may be worthless) soared nearly 700% from $952 to ~$8000.
• The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank bought $2 trillion of assets.
• Global debt rose above $225 trillion to more than 324% of global GDP.
• US corporations sold a record $1.75 trillion in bonds.
• European high-yield bonds traded at a yield under 2%.
• Argentina, a serial defaulter, sold 100-year bonds in an oversubscribed offer.
• Illinois, hopelessly insolvent, sold 3.75% bonds to bondholders fighting for allocations.
• Global stock market capitalization skyrocketed by $15 trillion to over $85 trillion and a record 113% of global GDP.
• The market cap of the FANGs increased by more than $1 trillion.
• S&P 500 volatility dropped to 50-year lows and Treasury volatility to 30-year lows.
• Money-losing Tesla Inc. sold 5% bonds with no covenants as it burned $4+ billion in cash and produced very few cars.



2017-11-25

Germany risks boom-bust havoc as zero rates cause overheating

Germany’s council of ‘Five Wise Men’ issued a stern rebuke to the ECB earlier this month over its loose money habits.

Professor Richard Werner, a German economist from Southampton University, said zero rates are fatal for Germany. 


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 24 November 2017

2017-11-23

Jean-Claude Juncker’s Roadmap for European Disaster

This month, the European Commission's president called for an acceleration of the eurozone's eastward expansion. 

But his plan for doing so could recreate the conditions that fueled the EU-wide crisis stemming from Southern Europe just a few years ago.

Hans-Wernet Sinn, Project Syndicate 19 September 2017

Banks will have to provide for expected losses

Among their other shortcomings, banks had done too little, too late, to recognise losses on wobbly assets. 

Under existing standards they make provisions only when losses are incurred, even if they see trouble coming. 

IFRS 9, which comes into force on January 1st, obliges them to provide for expected losses instead.

2017-11-21

Fed's Trickle-down monetary policy

The Keynesian Fed economists who were dismissive of Reagan’s trickle-down theory 
still don’t appear to see the irony in the fact that


they applied trickle-down monetary policy in the hope that by giving a boost to asset prices they would create wealth that would trickle down to the bottom 50% of the US population or to Main Street. 

It didn’t.


John Mauldin 17 November 2017

SEB: Boprisfallen stannar på 5–10 procent

2017-11-20

“Shadow banking”

It's larger than the world economy. It poses risks to financial stability.


Bloomberg, 20 November 2017

2017-11-16

Société Générale strategist, and well known permabear, Albert Edwards warns


that the past few sessions of falling prices seen in high-yield bonds and stocks of highly indebted companies could suggest excessive leverage might be “the key area of vulnerability that could bring down the inflated pyramid scheme that the central banks have created.”


MarketWatch 16 November 2017

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy “We’ve learned over the past 10 years that fiscal policy can have pretty powerful effects in deep recessions

Under these circumstances, there is a strong case for loosening fiscal policy and borrowing more. This is especially true for policies that put money directly into the hands of people who will spend it quickly and counteract sluggish demand, and for investments that have long-term benefits.

“Economies do not self-stabilise,” said Olivier Blanchard, at a conference on macroeconomic policy, on lessons of the financial crisis for monetary and fiscal policy. Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy, Conference 

Coordinators: Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence H. Summers.


Själv brukar jag med en dåres envishet upprepa följande ord, första gången den 5 december 2009
Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.

2017-11-14

“The blunt truth is there is a single monetary policy, but there is not a monetary union,” Mr Tucker said.

There is the money that Mario [Draghi, ECB president] issues, the notes. But these are inconvenient to carry about. 

Most of the money we use are deposits held in 19 national banking systems.

Claire Jones, FT 13 November 2017



2017-11-12

Gordon Brown räddade England och världen

Som premiärminister ledde han G20-mötet som kan ha räddat världen undan en depression under finanskrisen.

Dessförinnan hade han som finansminister stoppat Tony Blairs försök att föra in Storbritannien i euron. 

Som Grekland visar är det svårt att lämna euron. 

Utan Brown inget Brexit. Utan Brexit inget självständigt Storbritannien. 

Marschen mot ett Europas Förenta Stater hade varit mycket svår att stoppa.

Hans efterträdare David Cameron utlyste en folkomröstning om självständighet för Skottland, en omröstning han höll på att förlora. Gordon Brown, från Skottland, var viktig för att detta med nöd och näppe förhindrades.

Heder åt Gordon Brown.

Läs om hans memoarer här




2017-11-09

The job of a normal central bank faced with this situation is to be the lender of last resort. But ECB...

But the ECB was deliberately constructed to be different from normal central banks. 

One of the most striking moments in the euro crisis saga was when European elites forced Silvio Berlusconi to leave office in favour of unelected Mario Monti. This was possible because Italy is a member of the euro area, and is therefore uniquely vulnerable to capital flight and bank runs.

Spaniards have good reason to hold euros in bank deposits and euro-denominated bonds as their safe asset, but have literally no reason to hold Spanish bank deposits or Spanish government bonds. 

At any moment, euro-area creditors could decide they no longer wish to finance a country’s banks and its government.

This arrangement is inherently unstable.

Matthew C Klein, FT Alphaville 9 November 2017



The Asian financial crisis


Local banks and non-financial companies ended up borrowing dollars and yen short-term to fund real estate bubbles and acquisitions.


Matthew C Klein, FT Alphaville 8 November 2017

The institutional changes recommended by euro-area elites will likely exacerbate global imbalances.

One of the interesting ideas we discussed was the “re-nationalisation of fiscal policy”. 

In exchange for accepting German plans for a European Monetary Fund, which would only provide emergency lending after private creditors are forced to take large losses, elected governments would have more freedom to tax and spend. 

Treaty-based deficit rules would be replaced by market discipline.


Matthew C Klein, FT Alphaville 8 November 2017

2017-11-08

The Fangs

The Fangs have delivered spectacularly in the past couple of years. 




Originally named for the initials of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, and now typically also including Apple and Microsoft

John Authers, FT 8 November 2017


Apple closes above $900 billion milestone in climb to $1 trillion market cap

Apple could also hasten the drive to $1 trillion by buying back shares as it has actively done in the past, as it continues to issue bonds to fund buybacks and dividends.

MarketWatch 8 November 2017


The good news is that the Fangs are not overvalued relative to the market. 

The bad news is that the entire market is overvalued. 

Research from the Boston-based fund manager GMO.

John Authers, FT 10 November 2017




2017-11-05

Adults in the Room Yanis Varoufakis,

Adults in the Room
Yanis Varoufakis, the colourful former Greek finance minister,
who bears the scars of his country’s bruising scrap with the EU over its debt crisis.
David Davis is currently reading his account of those talks, Adults in the Room, a searing indictment of the anti-democratic, underhand and downright mendacious tactics used by what Varoufakis calls the EU’s “deep establishment” to make the Greeks grovel. 

“Brussels is a democracy-free zone,” he wrote. “It is the nature of the beast to treat the will of electorates as a nuisance that must be, somehow, negated.”


2017-11-02

Ambrose, Wolf och Johan Schück om inflationsmålet



The cult of inflation targeting began in New Zealand in the late Eighties

Let us at least hope that the great monetary misadventure has burned itself out. 

In the wrong circumstances such a doctrine is a formula for asset bubbles and deranged financial cycles, and that is precisely what events have conspired to produce. 

The logic of constructing an entire financial order around one arbitrary variable such as inflation was never compelling. This technocrat urge to fine-tune prices is a radical departure from their historic role of central banks: to ensure financial stability and act as a lender-of-last resort in a crisis. 

Ambrose 1 November 2017



Did inflation targeting fail? 
How can it have gone so wrong?

Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 5 2009


Riksbankens mål om 2,0 procents inflation tillkom i all hast för litet mer än 20 år sedan

Inflationsmålet skulle inte ha fun
nits där, om Sverige hade klarat att hålla fast växelkurs. 

Johan Schück, DN 2015-05-08


Asset price bubbles and Central Bank Policy




Gordon Brown his failure to rally the nation round the “necessary fiscal stimulus”

Gordon Brown has described his failure to rally the nation round the “necessary fiscal stimulus” following the financial crisis as one of the biggest regrets of his time in office.

FT 30 October 2017

The Phillips curve may be broken for good

Central bankers insist that the underlying theory remains valid

The Economist 1 November 2017

2017-11-01

Harry Flam tror att bostadspriserna långsamt sjunker eller bara planar ut

Den svalnande bostadsmarknaden är inte ett tecken på att det finns en bostadsbubbla som håller på att spricka. Harry Flam tror snarare på en mindre dramatisk situation där priserna långsamt sjunker eller bara planar ut.

Metro 28 oktober 2017


Bubblor planar inte ut


2017-10-31

Banks do not "lend out" deposits or reserves

Rather, they create both loan assets and matching deposit liabilities "from nothing" by means of double entry accounting entries. 

Creating money with a stroke of the pen (or a few taps on a computer keyboard) is what banks do.

Frances Coppola, 29 October 2017

Six Ways NIRP Is Economically Negative

Central banking is hard. But the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco makes it look easy.

They have a game called “Chair the Fed” where you get to set the level of short-term interest rates once every three months.

The European Central Bank has its own game 

Matthew C Klein, FT Alphaville 30/10 2017

2017-10-28

Kronan borde ha släppts fri redan 1985. Feldt, Palme och Lars Wohlin.

Den 21 november 1985 vid ett-tiden fick jag - som chef för Stadshypotek - meddelandet om att Riksbanken hade upphävt alla utlåningsrestriktioner. Jag tittade på mina medarbetare och undrade om man på Riksbanken verkligen förstod vad man gjorde.

Lars Wohlin i Ekonomisk Debatt nr 1/1998

Misstaget var att inte låta kronan flyta redan 1985
Kjell-Olof Feldt, SvD 28 oktober 2017

– När vi devalverade 1982 lovade vi att aldrig mer devalvera. Men det var ett misstag att inte låta kronan flyta långt tidigare. Hade vi släppt kronan 1985 så hade mycket gått bättre. Det är jag övertygad om, sade Feldt.



Kjell-Olof Feldt: ALLA DESSA DAGAR... I regeringen 1982-1990:

Jag var emellertid tvungen att försöka fånga hans /Palmes/ uppmärksamhet åtminstone en kort stund för ett viktigt meddelande. Riksbanken ville nämligen inom kort avlägsna de sista resterna av regleringarna på kreditmarknaden... Men den politiska innebörden var solklar: det betydde att socialdemokratin efter decenniers segt motstånd överlämnade en av sina mest symbolfyllda bastioner för styrning av den svenska ekonomin till marknadskrafterna...

Olof såg allt mer irriterad och störd ut ju mer jag lade ut texten. Han uttryckte sin olust också med sitt kroppsspråk - han vände sig mer och mer bort från mig där han satt i sin soffa.

Men just som jag började tro att han tänkte säga nej till hela idén reste han sig och sade: Gör som ni vill. Jag begriper ändå ingenting. Varpå han återgick till att grubbla över sina egna bekymmer. Det var faktiskt enda gången jag hört Olof Palme göra en sådan deklaration. Jag måste tillstå att jag aldrig känt mig så ensam under min tid som finansminister.


2017-10-27

The Euro is good for separatists like Catalonia

It has always been a big problem for a new state to get a currency that is widely accepted.

Catalonia does not have that problem. 
They just keep the euro. 

They do not have a printing press of their own, but neither has Spain.

Ironic, is it not, that the Euro, meant to unite Europe, now serves to disunite Spain.








2017-10-25

We cannot tell people they must remain stuck in a deflationary economy because it is the only way to stop the financial system from exploding.

Martin Wolf, about IMF Global Financial Stability Report,

FT 24 October 2017

Oscar Properties


Investeringen i Oscar Properties uppges ha beskrivits som ”säker” av banken.
Den beskrivning vänder sig Claes Hemberg emot.
Bland annat hjälpte Swedbank Oscar Properties att ta upp ett lån på sammanlagt nära en halv miljard genom en så kallad obligation.

My modest conribution to solving the conundrum of missing NAIRU inflation

We all know from our first economics textbooks that demand can leak, into savings or imports.

We all know that more and more of things are imported from China.

When demand in countries like Sweden increases a lot of it goes to buying flatscreens TVs. From Asia,

The conslusion is therefore that the effect should be seen not only in CPI but also more and more in the current account.

This of course is something that every Master of The Universe economist knows. 

But why do the not write about it? Too simple and already in their models?


The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level.
John Plender FT 3 October 2017


What is the “stall speed” of an economy?
Unemployment tends to rise when GDP growth falls below about 2.5-3 per cent
Gavyn Davies blog June 15, 2011

U.S. Trade and Current Account Deficit




2017-10-24

China risks 'Minsky Moment' as debt reaches saturation

China’s lending boom since the downturn in early 2015 is comparable to the massive stimulus after the Lehman crisis. 

Non-financial debt has galloped up to 300pc of GDP, uncharted territory for a big developing economy.


2017-10-23

The (non) disappearing Phillips Curve: why it matters

The existence, and recent disappearance, of the Phillips Curve is the hottest topic among macro investors and policy makers at the moment.

Gavyn Davies' blog, 22 October 2017

Zhou Xiaochuan, the long-serving and respected governor of the People's Bank of China, raised eyebrows last week

when he cautioned that the country could have a "Minsky Moment" if "we are too optimistic when things go smoothly."

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Bloomberg 23 October 2017

2017-10-20

There is one economist whose name is on everyone's lips today. Hyman Minsky

The phrase was never used in the FT until early 2007. It has now appeared more than 80 times. 

The reason for this is that the Lehman crisis provided us with a perfect, textbook example of a Minsky Moment.

John Authers, FT 29 October 2017

2017-10-19

China’s central bank governor used the Communist party congress to caution a possible “Minsky moment”.

China’s central bank governor has warned in unusually stark language of the risks from excessive debt and speculative investment, as he used the Communist party congress to caution that the country’s fast-growing economy faced a possible “Minsky moment”.

FT 19 October 2017

2017-10-16

ECB bondbuying, handled largely by national central banks, which purchase their own governments’ bonds

The vast bond-buying operations nominally undertaken by the ECB in recent years 

have been handled largely by national central banks, which purchase their own governments’ bonds.


Daniel Gros, Procect Syndicate 11 October 2017

2017-10-14

DN-ledare: Frågan har ju alltid varit när och inte om bostadskarusellen i storstäderna kommer att hejdas.

Den svenska hyresregleringen tenderar att låsa in folk där de bor. 
De som inte har etablerat sig är utfrysta.

Vår skeva skattestruktur gör det samtidigt billigt att låna och bo, men dyrt att flytta från en villa eller bostadsrätt. Flyttkedjorna blir kortare, trögare. 

Det vore därför inte så konstigt om den nya byggboomen slutade i en paradox: fina lägenheter som gapar tomma, och fortsatt stor bostadsbrist.

DN-ledare 14 oktober 2017

‘The risks have definitely increased’ – Sweden’s housing boom wobbles




More likely are rising inflation, a sharp rise in interest rates, a higher dollar and a huge surge in the US current account deficit.

2017-10-13

World’s top economists worry about tools to fight economic downturn

The question is whether there are enough weapons to fight the next crisis when it comes

With interest rate cuts unlikely to be sufficiently effective in another downturn because they will not start high enough, Mr Blanchard and Lawrence Summers, the former treasury secretary, advocated much more effective and planned use of fiscal policy. 

In a joint presentation, they called for governments to put in place plans for aggressive fiscal stimulus in the event of a downturn.

FT 13 October 2017



2017-10-12

The US economy looked eerily similar in late 1965


The edifice of hyper-valued assets across the world is built on one elemental premise: that US inflation is dead, and therefore that the US Federal Reserve will continue to bathe international finance with dollar liquidity. 
We have been here before. The US economy looked eerily similar in late 1965. The jobless rate had fallen to 4.2pc - exactly where it is now - without a flicker of wage pressure.
It was the calm before the storm. Powerful forces were building below the surface. The US was on the cusp of the Great Inflation. Wall Street equities lost almost 60pc of their value in real terms over the next decade. 
Bondholders were slaughtered. 
The collective market bet is that this time is different.


The pundits may finally be right about the dollar

Pundits have been saying last rites for the dollar’s global dominance since the 1960s – that is, for more than half a century now. 

But the pundits may finally be right


Barry Eichengreen, Project Syndiate 11 October 2017

Central bankers face a crisis of confidence as models fail

Inflation is not behaving in the way economic models predicted.

“the link between measures of domestic slack and inflation has proved rather weak and elusive for at least a couple of decades”

(The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level.
John Plender) 


FT 11 October 2017



2017-10-11

Fastighetsbolag med exponering mot bostadsrättsmarknaden. JM har backat 21 procent.

Besqab har tappat nästan 28 procent, SSM drygt 39 procent och Oscar Properties Holding nära 37 procent. 

Annika Winsth, chefsekonom på Nordea:  

- I alla län i Sverige har vi haft det högsta byggandet på 25 år.

SvD 11 oktober 2017

Huspriser i Sverige

2017-10-10

Martin Wolf on Inflation and stagflation

All this would undermine elevated asset markets and might trigger worries over debt sustainability. In a still fragile world economy, the results might be ugly. One might even see a return to the stagflation of the 1970s, with far lower inflation, but also far higher indebtedness.

The starting point is a puzzle: why is inflation so low when the rate of unemployment is already a little below the level the Fed (and most economists) consider to be “full employment”
(the rate at which inflation should start to accelerate upwards).


Martin Wolf FT 10 October 2017

Wallenstam omvandlar första etappen av ett bostadsrättsprojekt mellan Telefonplan och Älvsjö till hyresrätter.

Solberga ligger mellan Telefonplan och Älvsjö, där det de senaste åren byggts tusentals nya lägenheter, varav många bostadsrätter.

Aftonbladet 9 oktober 2017



Det finns troligen ingen bostadsbubbla i Sverige, eftersom det är dyrare att bo i hyresrätt än i bostadsrätt. Det menar Finanspolitiska rådets ordförande Harry Flam.



2017-10-09

Wolfgang Schäuble warns of debt-driven global financial crisis

Central bank policies raise threat of bubbles, says outgoing German finance minister

 His comments come a day after Christine Lagarde warned of “threats on the horizon” from “high levels of debt in many countries to rapid credit expansion in China, to excessive risk-taking in financial markets”.



The BIS warned last month that the world had become so used to cheap credit that higher interest rates could derail the global economic recovery.



Svegfors om Anders Ferm, Tomas Fischer, Rolf Englund och kronkursförsvaret

Tack för tipset AF.







Vi har en väldigt dålig ansvarskultur i svensk politik.
Det mest flagranta exemplet är kronfallet i november 1992.
Och så kallade man detta ett misslyckande och alla satt kvar.
Det menar jag var ett stort moraliskt haveri



2017-10-06

Fed has no reliable theory of inflation, says Former Fed governor Tarullo


John Plender: The relationship between slack and inflation nonetheless appears to hold at global level.

FT 4 October 2017






2017-10-05

Population growth in Africa

As for Africa, the UN’s mid-point projection puts the population aged 20-65 at 1.3 billion in 2050 and 2.5 billion by 2100, up from 540 million today.



 


2017-10-03

1917 skakades Sverige av hungerkravaller förorsakade av prisreglering på potatis, typ hyresreglering

Hyresregleringen finns fortfarande kvar, fast under annat namn.


1917 skakades Sverige av hungerkravaller. 

Stapelfödan för personer med låg inkomst var potatis. 
För att hålla nere priset på potatis, och hindra bönderna att tjäna pengar, införde regeringen prisreglering på potatis.


Alltså blev det inte lönsamt för bönderna att odla potatis till försäljning. 
Grisarnas vanliga föda var kålrötter. De var inte prisreglerade. 


Så bönderna gav potatisen till grisarna och sålde kålrötterna till de hungriga stadsborna.


Nils-Eric Sandberg, Byggindustrin 20 september 2017


Stockholm och andra svenska storstäder kan bli det Nya Norrland, fast i en ond spiral av utflyttning och bristande affärsunderlag.


När bostäderna stiger i värde konsumerar hushållen ungefär 25 procent av värdestegringen. 

Den konsumtionen försvinner om bostadspriserna inte längre stiger.


Mattias Svensson, Fastighetstidningen 3 oktober 2017


Det är en del, företrädesvis fastighetsmäklare och bankekonomer,  som försöker intala sig själva och oss andra att bostadspriserna kan plana ut.

Men bostadsbubblor, liksom andra bubblor, har en mycket karaktäristisk form.

Det brukar, alltid, se ut så här.



https://englundmacro.blogspot.se/2012/03/visst-gor-det-ont-nar-bostadsbubblor.html




2017-09-28

Sea Level Rise: What It Is, Why It Matters, and What Can Be Done?

Two major factors are believed to contribute to this specifically. 

First, as the planet’s temperature rises, the water in our oceans begins to physically expand, and thus take up more room. Water expansion is responsible for about one-third of the change in sea level.

Second, higher world temperatures also make various ice sheets at different points melt.
This melting accounts for the remaining two-thirds of sea level change.


2017-09-27

Investors are mistaken if they think yields will be able to stay low for much longer

Bond yields could react more forcefully, if and when market participants upgrade their expectations concerning future growth and inflation. 

Once investors wake up to the return of the economic cycle, their expectations about interest rates and the course of monetary policy will also change. 

Michael Heise, chief economist at Allianz, FT 26 September 2017

2017-09-23

Banking remains far too undercapitalised for comfort, Wolf

Senior officials argue that capital requirements have increased 10-fold. 
Yet this is true only if one relies on the alchemy of risk-weighting. 

In the UK, actual leverage has merely halved, to around 25 to one. 

In brief, it has gone from the insane to the merely ridiculous.


Martin Wolf, FT 21 September 2017

2017-09-18

Ovanligt varmt havsvatten i Atlanten, stark västafrikansk monsun och ingen El Niño orkan


Vattnet i den tropiska Atlanten är alltid varmt relativt sett, men precis som det mesta så varierar även det över tid.

Den här variationen kallas för den atlantiska multidekadala oscillationen, AMO, och består av en varm och en kall fas. 

Dessa faser kännetecknas av 20-40 åriga perioder där vattentemperaturen i Atlanten oftare är varmare respektive kallare. 

Sedan mitten på 1990-talet (ungefär från 1995) befinner sig Atlanten i en varm fas av AMO. 


Read more here