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2017-06-26

Ambrose BIS. The global economy is caught in a permanent trap of boom-bust financial cycles.

 
This deformed structure is becoming ever more corrosive and dangerous as debt ratios rise to vertiginous levels, BIS has warned.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 25 June 2017

2017-06-21

Greek economic tragedy, much of the European view continues to defy economic logic – and for a simple reason

European politicians worry about the domestic political consequences of granting Greece debt relief, especially ahead of Germany’s federal election in September.

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Project Syndicate 21 June 2017

Greece “extend and pretend” - The latest deal on debt won’t work, and everybody knows it.


This protracted game of “extend and pretend” serves nobody’s long-term interests:

not those of the Greek government, the International Monetary Fund or, most of all, the people of Greece.

The Editors, Bloomberg 21 June 2017

2017-06-20

ECB rule book for giving emergency loans. Greek banks are still using 44 bn euro of ELA help.

ECB-sanctioned “emergency liquidity assistance” was a lifeline for a clutch of banks that were cut off from normal financing channels during the crisis.

FT 19 June 2017

2017-06-18

“Minsky moment,” the point at which excess debt sparks a financial crisis.

The late Hyman Minsky said that such moments arise naturally when a long period of stability and complacency eventually leads to the buildup of excess debt and overleveraging. 

At some point the branch breaks, and gravity takes over. It can happen quickly, too.


Minsky came to mind because in the past week I saw yet more signs that financial markets are overvalued and investors excessively optimistic. Yet I still haven’t seen many references to Minsky. 

That’s a little surprising.


John Mauldin, 17 June 2017

2017-06-16

Can We See A Bubble If We're Inside The Bubble?

Greece Compromise deal, IMF join the rescue, but delay providing any money

Under the compromise deal, the IMF is set to formally join the rescue programme, 

but delay providing any money to Athens until the eurozone provides more clarity on what debt relief it is prepared to offer.

FT 15 June 2017

2017-06-15

Räddningslånen till Grekland kan inte summeras. Greece bailouts does not add up.

In 2010, when the Greek debt crisis started, Greece received €110bn in bailout money.

And in 2012, the country received a second bailout of €130bn.

In August 2015, the eurozone countries agreed to give Greece a third bailout, of up to €86bn 

The next tranche of that bailout, which Greece needs in order to honour repayments due in July, is being discussed at the eurozone finance ministers' meeting on Thursday.

BBC 15 June 2017

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:

Observera att man inte kan addera dessa summor, eftersom nästan hela de nya lånen används för att lösa in tidigare lån från EU och IMF.

Ja, de första pengarna gick förstås till de tyska och franska banker som gärna lånat ut pengar till Grekland och nu hotades av konkurs.

EU räddade inte Grekland. EU räddade bankerna.

EU did not save Greece. EU saved the banks.




2017-06-08

Albert Edwards' Scariest Charts

"Investors Should Be Petrified" Of The Coming Ice Age

The big Ice Age call was that the tight positive correlation between equity yields and bond yields that market participants had enjoyed since 1982, driven by ever-lower inflation, would break down.

zerohedge 7 June 2017

2017-06-05

The new “safe asset” proposed by Brussels doesn’t solve the euro zone’s problem.

Crucially, however, the proposed new securities wouldn’t be jointly guaranteed by the euro-zone governments.

Without the joint guarantee, the new instrument is largely pointless.

The innovation would have symbolic value, always much prized in EU affairs. 

And it could serve as a prelude to deeper forms of integration.


"I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments.

It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created."

Romano Prodi, EU Commission President. Financial Times, 4 December 2001

Plender: Would-be homeowners confront a horrendous problem of affordability.

When politicians promise to make homes more affordable they are being utterly disingenuous because the requisite drop in house prices might lead to their being thrown out by the large pool of owners whose houses would be worth less.

They prefer instead to bolster demand by offering financial support to first-time buyers via schemes such as the perverse Help to Buy initiative that until recently provided guarantees for mortgages that required only a 5 per cent deposit.

John Plender, FT 14 May 2017

2017-06-02

Nigel Lawson: The EU exists only to become a superstate. Britain has no place in it.


On the European mainland it has always been well understood that the whole purpose of European integration was political, and that economic integration was simply a means to a political end.

Nigel Lawson, Telegraph 2 May 2016

The European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability Mechanism will raise 600 miljarder kr this year

The European Financial Stability Facility and
the European Stability Mechanism will raise a combined €61.5bn (600 miljarder kr) 

in financing this year.


FT 1 June 2017

Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca

For all the finance ministry’s ebullience over the MPS agreement, 
it will find it much harder to win approval from Brussels for a state bailout of Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca. 


FT 1 June 2017

2017-06-01

ECB’s Coeure calls for clarity on Greece debt relief before QE inclusion

Christine Lagarde said that eurozone creditors must provide considerably more detail on debt relief for Greece before the fund will take a decision to join the country’s bailout programme.

“There cannot be a specific case for any particular country.”


Read more here

2017-05-31

Consumers surplus förklarar lägre produktivitet ?

Många oroar sig för den sjunkande produktiviteten i OECD-länderna.

Men tänk om det bara är ett räknefel?

Om jag fattat det rätt mäter man produktivitet som produktion per mantimme (ursäkta) till marknadspris.

Låt oss ta wifi-utrustning som exempel. Den har blivit mycket billigare, eftersom den, liksom de mesta andra varor, produceras allt billigare i Asien.

Skillnaden mellan vad vi konsumenter är villiga att betala för wifi, The Sky is the Limit, och vad de faktiskt kostar att köpa hos Kjell, är mycket stor.

Min enkla, förhoppningsvis geniala, tanke är att det som framstår som lägre produktivitet i själva verket är en ökning av Consumers Surplus.

Kommentarer välkomnas.

,





Production is valued at the prices we pay for goods. Take beer. 
Count the number of bottles sold, multiply by the price per bottle, and we have the value of beer produced, by the standard definition. That does not, however, indicate the value to consumers of all that beer. 

To get value to consumers, we need an immeasurable concept called “consumer surplus.”






2017-05-27

Central banks response to the crisis almost a decade ago is still the key driver of markets

The steady expansion of central bank balance sheets via quantitative easing is still keeping the now-familiar show of equities at record levels and negligible risk premiums firmly on the road.

FT 26 May 2017


ZIRP and QE were terrible mistakes



2017-05-26

ECB faces impossible choice between German overheating or Italian debt storm Ambrose

When ECB runs out of plausible justifications for why it is still covering Italy's entire budget deficit and rolling over its existing €2.2 trillion of public debt.


Ambrose, 25 May 2017

2017-05-24

Riksbanken: Nödvändigt att Riksbanken har en tillräckligt stor valutareserv om det uppstår likviditetsbehov i utländsk valuta som inte bankerna själva kan hantera

Hushållens höga och stigande skuldsättning utgör ett allvarligt hot mot den finansiella och den makroekonomiska stabiliteten. 

Det finns även sårbarheter i det svenska banksystemet och dess motståndskraft behöver därför stärkas.  Det gäller såväl bankernas förmåga att hantera likviditetsrisker som deras kapitalnivåer. 


Riksbanken Finansiell Stabilitet 24 maj 2017


De svenska storbankerna lånar in korta pengar och lånar ut långa – det klassiska receptet för allvarliga finanskriser.

Tidigare hanterades bolånen av särskilda bolåneinstitut. De gav ut bostadsobligationer med mycket långa löptider, som svarade mot låntagarnas amorteringstider. 


2017-05-23

Canada household debt has risen to 167 percent of disposable income

As buyers stretch to afford homes, household debt has risen to 167 percent of disposable income -- the highest among the Group of Seven industrialized nations. 

Bloomberg 23 May 2017

Will a Smaller Fiscal Deficit Cause the Trade Deficit to Decline or Unemployment to Rise?

However, accounting identities do not tell us the direction in which causality flows, and so all identity-based arguments must implicitly make assumptions about which of the variables drive the other.

That is the nub of the claim Shultz and Feldstein make. They argue that if we cut the U.S. fiscal deficit, the U.S. trade deficit must automatically decline.

Michael Pettis, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 22 May 2017

Greece and its European creditors failed on Monday to agree on the next batch of bailout loans

After more than eight hours of talks in Brussels, finance ministers from the single currency bloc and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) were unable to secure an agreement on the sort of debt relief measures the Athens government can expect when its current bailout program ends next year.

Greece could default on its debts in July if it can't repay some 7.3 billion euros

Monte dei Paschi rescue deal now close

Since the start of 2017, MPS, the Italian government, the European Commission and the European Central Bank’s regulatory arm, the Single Supervisory Mechanism, have been locked in talks about the design of a rescue.


FT 22 May 2017

2017-05-21

Münchau: The eurobonds would dismantle the toxic nexus between banks and governments.

The no-bailout rule would suddenly make sense. 

This is an environment in which states can default.


Wolfgang Münchau, FT 21 May 2017

The End of Theory: Financial Crises, the Failure of Economics and the Sweep of Human Interaction Richard Bookstaber Lucas

As Queen ELIZABETH II famously once pointed out, most economists failed to predict the crisis of 2007-08.

In a lecture to the American Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas argued that macroeconomics had succeeded in so far as the “central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes”.


Yet within five years the world faced its worst crisis since the 1930s.

The Economist Print 18 May 2017


When the Queen asked asked an academic at the LSE why the economics profession had failed to predict the credit crunch, she raised a topic which continues to resonate. 

Although many answers have been given to Her Majesty’s question, I suspect that none of them has really settled the issue. Her question is disarmingly simple, but the answer is not.

Gavyn Davies blog, February 10, 2011


2017-05-19

Tett: a sudden recession would create a nasty shock.

The key point is this: 

with so much growth already baked into financiers’ forecasts a sudden recession would create a nasty shock.

Gillian Tett, FT 18 May 2017

2017-05-15

The Economist: How the 2007-08 crisis unfolded

Take the cash, hide it in the mattress and wait for the next/coming stock market storm to pass.

I Sverige drömmer knappt någon om euron längre, utom möjligtvis Liberalerna – och debattören och författaren Per Wirtén.

Joseph Stiglitz, före detta chefekonom på Världsbanken och rådgivare till amerikanska regeringar, tvingas i sin nya bok Euro – hur en gemensam valuta hotar Europas framtid, konstatera att en fullständig ”brist på empati” präglar eurons politiska förespråkare.

Per Wirtén drömmer om ett enat, federalt Europa, ett Europas förenta stater. Kärnan i den drömmen är just den euro som Stiglitz sågar med fotknölarna.

Känslan är stark av att Wirtén inte greppat vidden och djupet av den katastrof som eurosystemet faktiskt ställt till med. Och hans lösning är att göra EU:s institutioner mäktigare.





Mr Stiglitz presents the euro story as mostly tragedy: 

“It was created with the best of intentions by visionary leaders whose visions were clouded by an imperfect understanding of what a monetary union entailed.” 






2017-05-14

In 2016, Germany ran a current-account surplus of roughly $ 297 billion, or 8.6% of GDP

Changing the exchange rate would not diminish the incentive for Germans to save.

In the current European environment of near-zero interest rates, there’s little risk that additional public investment will crowd out private investment. 


Barry Eichengreen, Project Syndicate 14 May 2017

2017-05-12

Beleaguered pessimists of the eurozone, searching for the next threat on the horizon, have settled on Italy

have settled on Italy as the likeliest source of doom, or at least disorder.

Weaker banks struggle with consequences of a long recession and loose lending


FT 11 May 2017

A bird flu called H7N9

Across China, the virus that could spark the next pandemic is already circulating. It's a bird flu called H7N9.

What H7N9 can't do-yet-is spread easily from person to person, but experts know that could change. 

The longer the virus spends in humans, the better the chance that it might mutate to become more contagious-and once that happens, it's only a matter of time before it hops a plane out of China and onto foreign soil, where it could spread through the air like wildfire.

The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic
Time Magazine, 4 May 2017

2017-05-07

Assar Lindbeck om 90-talet: En fråga värd att diskutera är om det var rätt att hålla investeringar inom utgiftstaket

– En fråga värd att diskutera är om det var rätt att hålla investeringar inom utgiftstaket eller om vissa skulle kunna lyftas ut.

– Man kunde ha lyft ut infrastruktur. Det skulle innebära svåra avgränsningar, men det är inte heller bra att underhållet av järnvägen blivit såpass eftersatt.

- Vi förlorade idén om att påverka konjunkturutvecklingen med finanspolitiska medel. Under en lågkonjunktur ska man enligt normala spelregler öka offentliga utgifter.

Assar Lindbeck, SvD 28 april 2017


Vi menade då /i Ekonomikommissionens rapport (SOU 1993:16)/, liksom nu, att de ekonomiska problemen inte endast, eller ens i första hand, härrör från ekonomisk-politiska missgrepp, som hade kunnat undvikas med skickligare politiker, experter och ämbetsmän.

Problemens rötter sitter i institutioner och regelsystem i den svenska varianten av representativ demokrati och parlamentarism.



Göran Persson om 90-talet: 
Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre.

Göran Persson om 90-talet: Vi gjorde mycket fel, naturligtvis. Kanske borde vi ha sparat lite mindre.


SvD 7 maj 2017

Den hemska sanningen om John Hassler, Göran Persson och kronkursförsvaret



LO-Kampanjen "Jag räddade Sverige.

Huvudpersonerna i kampanjen var Annika, handelsmedlem och ensamstående mamma, Anders, arbetslös byggnadsarbetare och Bibbi och Kenta, en lågavlönad barnfamilj.

Kommentar av Rolf Englund:
Kampanjens syfte från LOs sida synes ha varit att övertyga sina medlemmar, som hade fått lida av Göran Perssons åtstramningspolitik, om att deras lidande inte hade varit i onödan. 


Dessvärre var det nog ändå så att det var i onödan. Göran Perssons hade tydligen köpt den Bildt/Wibbleska problemformuleringen utan att inse att de dåliga offentliga finanserna berodde på krisen, och inte tvärtom. 

Det kanske kan förklaras av Göran Perssons traumatiska möte med "de flinande 25-åringarna" på Wall Street.

Ur LOs verksamhetsberättelse för 1998, sid 76




2017-05-03

Only one-third of American home values have recovered pre-recession peaks

What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us

“I am as orthodox neoclassical economist as they make them, not a fringe heterodox or something. 

I just do not like unreliable models that use some math like regression and miss a layer of stochasticity, and get wrong results, and I hate sloppy mechanistic reliance on bad statistical methods. 


I do not like models that fragilize. I do not like models that work on someone's computer but not in reality. This is standard economics.”


Zerohedge 3 May 2017, Authored by Jeff Deist via The Mises Institute

2017-05-02

PM Nilsson: Syftet med den europeiska gemensamma valutan var inte bara att minska transaktionskostnaderna utan också att framtvinga en europeisk överstat.

Statsbygget tog också stora kliv åren före och efter millennieskiftet och 2005 kände sig EU mogen för en stats symboliska födelse: en konstitution.

Den förhandlades, skrevs och skickades ut för folkomröstning.

Det blev ett rungande nej i de två länder som var först ut, Frankrike och Nederländerna. Särskilt unga sa nej. Folkomröstningsturnén ställdes in, liksom planerna på en europeisk konstitution.

Här kom den stora stjärnsmällen för EU. Brexit är egentligen en tillspetsad konsekvens av den.

En europeisk överstat kräver en överstatlig europeisk demokrati men den vill de europeiska folken inte ha. De anser att den nationella demokratin ska ha företräde eftersom dess legitimitet är större.

Sedan dess hankar sig EU fram och väcker måttlig entusiasm.

Överstaten, eller federationen, är tills vidare död som idé.





2017-04-30

Mr Macron has proposed a common fiscal policy, a joint finance minister, a eurozone debt instrument, and completion of the banking union.

He owes his voters an answer to the question of what he would do if, as is likely, Germany replies to his four proposals with: nein, nein, nein and nein.

Wolfgang Münchau, FT 30 April 2017


Mr Macron is the opposite of a souverainiste: he wants a fiscal and political union for the eurozone because he recognises that the only nation state that benefits from the current political arrangements in Europe is Germany, not France.

In that sense, he is the polar opposite of Marine Le Pen, leader of the rightwing National Front. 


Mr Macron wants to make the eurozone work; 
Ms Le Pen wants to destroy it.


Wolfgang Münchau, FT 1 January 2017


Ms Merkel does not say “no” to eurozone bonds. 
She says: “Not without treaty change.” 
The German constitutional court in Karlsruhe would never allow Germany’s sovereign guarantee to be given to its eurozone partners 
without them submitting to effective and centrally budgeted discipline.


Financial Times 31 May 2012



Climateer Investing: How Maritime Insurance Built Ancient Rome

Climateer Investing: How Maritime Insurance Built Ancient Rome: Yes, insurance, that's wot done it. Pre-coffeehouse insurance mart From Priceonomics, Mar. 18, 2016: In Ancient Rome, shipping...

Cecilia Skingsley: Den 23 september 1992 blev läget akut.

När var det som värst?
– För mig var det i september 1992. Allra värst var onsdagen och torsdagen den 23 och 24 september. Då var misstron mot Sverige total, vi hade länge syndat i så många avseenden.
I slutet av september hade den borgerliga regeringen och Socialdemokraterna just enats om ett första krispaket. Men bankernas finansieringskostnader skenade och boräntorna steg. På onsdagen hade all handel med svenska bostadsobligationer upphört.
Tidigare under krisen hade både Gotabanken och Nordbanken räddats med statligt stöd. Samtidigt hade en generell bankgaranti förberetts på Finansdepartementet. 
Den 23 september blev läget akut.
Stefan Ingves: "Enligt vår uppfattning stod det finansiella systemet i Sverige inför en kollaps den 24 september 1992."
Läs mer här


"Stålbadet i skuldfällan"
Rolf Englund på DN Debatt 26/8 1992


Tomas Fischer: Med Bildt mot Poltava 
Aftonbladet 22 december 1991








2017-04-28

Why would business leaders invest rather than buying back some of their companies’ own shares?

Why would business leaders invest in an uncertain world, rather than paying dividends to demanding (but generally risk-averse) investors, or buying back some of their companies’ own shares (thereby improving the price/earnings ratio and, better yet, increasing their own remuneration)? 

Jim O'Neill,  former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and former Commercial Secretary to the UK Treasury,

Project Syndicate 26 April 2017



2017-04-22

- Members of the single currency are forced to issue obligations in a currency none of them can print. Why not just call for a global gold standard?

If you like the euro, why not just call for a global gold standard?

Argentina and Korea at least had the option of breaking their pegs to the dollar and printing money to support their banks. Similarly, countries bound by the gold standard always had the option of de-linking and re-pegging. 

There is no comparably straightforward way to exit the strictures of the euro.

So, for those who believe the euro was a good idea at the time and remains a good idea for prospective members, why would you oppose restoring the classical gold standard? Why should the benefits of integration and price stability be limited to Europe?


Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs, skrev jag den  4 november 2011

2017-04-19

IMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2017

prolonged low-growth, low-interest rate environment can fundamentally change the nature of financial intermediation. 

Combined with low credit demand, this would lower bank earnings, particularly for smaller, deposit-funded, and less diversified institutions, and 

presenting long-lasting challenges for life insurers and defined-benefit pension funds.

Read more here


About Banks at IntCom


California Legislature approved a package of groundwater-management laws

In 2014, the California Legislature approved a package of groundwater-management laws -- long after most other Western states had done so -- that are now slowwwwwly beginning to take effect.

Local groundwater-management agencies are being formed that will have to come up with plans to reach groundwater sustainability within 20 years.

Bloomberg 18 April 2017

Groundwater at Google


2017-04-17

Germany’s trade surplus is a threat to global stability

Amounts to 9 pc of GDP.

Measured by capita, it is roughly three times the size of the Chinese trade surplus

Matthew Lynn, Telegraph 15 April 2017

2017-04-14

The Eurogroup is asking Greece to do something unprecedented

Historical experience — not just Greece’s experience, but that of a typical advanced country — is inconsistent with the primary surplus  paths that would make Greece’s current debt sustainable.

New research from Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Eike Kreplin, and Ugo Panizza suggests Schaeuble is wrong: there is no reasonable likelihood that the Greek government can continue without significant further debt relief.

Matthew C Klein, FT 13 april 2017

Glass-Steagall Big US banks defy calls that they should be broken up

Talk from the Trump administration about restoring some kind of modern-day Glass-Steagall, 

a Depression-era law that prohibited banks from trading and investing at the same time as taking /insured/ deposits from consumers.

FT 14 April 2017

2017-04-13

Ms Lagarde insisted there could be no special treatment of Greece when it comes to any fund decision on joining the bailout.

“If and when I put a programme to the board of the IMF it will have to comply with the rules of any…programme,” she said. 

“There cannot be a specific case for any particular country.”


FT 12 April 2017

2017-04-12

Soaring Trump dollar risks global trade war and China currency crisis, warns Posen

We expect the dollar to rise by another 10pc to 15pc.

Politicians from the G5 powers ultimately intervened to drive down the Reagan dollar at the Plaza Accord in 1985

That attempt to manipulate currencies in defiance of economic fundamentals led - by a complex chain of causality - to the Nikkei bubble in Japan, and to the 1987 stock market crash on Wall Street.


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 11 April 2017

2017-04-11

“Stein’s law” If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” China, Wolf


If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” 

This is “Stein’s law”, after its inventor Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon. 

Rüdiger Dornbusch, a US-based German economist, added: 

“The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”

Martin Wolf, FT 11 april 2017


Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop. 

Herbert Stein The Public Interest nr 97 Fall 1989

UK house prices may only be corrected by a market crash

according to economists from the University of Reading.

Bloomberg 11 April 2017

2017-04-05

What's Really Driving the US Trade Deficit. Capital flows dwarf trade flows

During this time trade imbalances were mostly determined by direct differences in the cost of traded goods, while capital flowed from one country to another mainly to balance trade flows. 

Today, however, conditions have changed dramatically. 

Capital flows dwarf trade flows, and investment decisions by fund managers determine their direction and size.


Michael Pettis, Bloomberg 3 April 2017

2017-04-04

Jacques Delors Institute: “At some point in the future, Europe will be hit by a new economic crisis. In its current set-up the euro is unlikely to survive that coming crisis,”

A group of leading economists and thinkers for the Jacques Delors Institute warned in a seminal report last year that EMU states will have to accept a supra-national system with a pooling of debts - anathema to the creditor bloc of Germany, Finland, Holland and Austria.

“At some point in the future, Europe will be hit by a new economic crisis. We do not know whether this will be in six weeks, six months or six years. But in its current set-up the euro is unlikely to survive that coming crisis,” they said.


It feels like 2008 again

In 2017 total household debt will reach its previous peak of $12.68 trillion, which it reached in the third quarter of 2008. 

MarketWatch 3 April 2017

2017-04-03

Homeowners are pulling cash out again - Olick


Fast-rising home prices gave homeowners more equity than many expected, and they are now tapping that equity at the fastest rate in eight years.

Diana Olick, CNBC 3 April 2017

2017-04-01

Trump has a big point on US Current Account Deficit

The US president signed an executive order on Friday 2017-03-31 calling for a study of the US’s $500bn annual trade deficit. 

FT 31 March 2017 

2017-03-29

Cervenka om bopriser och skuldsättning. Om de haft rätt hade ju förstås landets folkvalda för flera år sedan vidtagit en lång rad åtgärder i syfte att undanröja faran.


Orosspridarna? Sveriges Riksbank, Konjunkturinstitutet, Finansinspektionen, Boverket, Internationella Valutafonden, OECD, EU-kommissionen, European Systemic Risk Board, Moody’s, UBS, Nobelpristagare som Robert Shiller och Paul Krugman, svenska ekonomer som Lars Jonung med flera, förre finansministern Anders Borg, förre Riksbankschefen Lars Heikensten… hur mycket tid har ni?

Gemensamt för ovanstående är att de på olika sätt har uttryckt oro för de svenska bostadspriserna, hushållens skuldsättning, de svenska bankerna och det otrevliga som allt detta riskerar att göra med svensk ekonomi.

Lite ovanliga namn för att ingå i en populistisk desinformationsoperation, det ska medges.

Andreas Cervenka. SvD 27 mars 2017

Huspriser hos IntCom


2017-03-26

The Commission’s recent “White Paper on the Future of Europe” that sets out five possible paths forward for Europe

Rather than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, the EU needs to address why the ship is sinking.

The choice will require EU leaders first to assess, with honesty and even bravery, where the EU is right now. 

They must be willing to call a spade a spade – or, in this case, to call the EU an intergovernmental organization in transnational clothing. 

Only after they recognize that this is a dysfunctional structure – because it allows both the EU institutions and member states to skirt responsibility by constantly pointing fingers at one another – can they pursue the needed rebalancing.


Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Project Syndicate 20 March 2017




Att lämna euron eller sin partner är jobbigt. Men det kan var mödan värt.

 - En möjlig tolkning är att euron snarare än att vara en mekanism för ”en allt fastare sammanslutning av de europeiska folken” kanske kan vara den mekanism som håller ihop EU och förhindrar ett sönderfall därför att en återgång till nationella valutor upplevs som alltför komplicerad och riskfylld. 

Lars Calmfors, Eurokrisen, eurosamarbetets regelsystem och den framtida integrationen (SIEPS 2017:1)



2017-03-25

The Economist: Never-closer union


If it is to survive, the European Union must become a lot more flexible


The Economist print 25 March 2017

2017-03-21

The problem with cocos more broadly is that nobody knows if they work. FT


Lloyds Bank of the UK issued the first coco as part of a big capital restructuring in 2009.

 
Over $153bn of the securities have been issued since


FT 21 March 2017

Varför investera när man kan köpa tillbaka sina egna aktier?

Då stiger vinsten per aktie. Antalet aktier minskar ju.

Det kan bli fina bonusar av det.

$4 Trillion of Corporate Equity Liquidated Since 2000



Se även

There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive - $165 billion Buyback

S&P constituents are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007. 


The real, less respectable reason why companies engage in buybacks, namely to boost earnings per share by shrinking the equity.

Plender






A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan trades at record levels.

A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan, or difficult to predict, events 
is drawing the attention of some bears on Wall Street as it trades at record levels.


MarketWatch 21 March 2017

2017-03-20

Fed might be doing the right thing for the U.S. But for foreign companies and governments ....

But for foreign companies and governments that have borrowed trillions of U.S. dollars, the adjustment could be painful.

Mark Whitehouse, Bloomberg 19 March 2017