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2017-05-21

Münchau: The eurobonds would dismantle the toxic nexus between banks and governments.

The no-bailout rule would suddenly make sense. 

This is an environment in which states can default.


Wolfgang Münchau, FT 21 May 2017

The End of Theory: Financial Crises, the Failure of Economics and the Sweep of Human Interaction Richard Bookstaber Lucas

As Queen ELIZABETH II famously once pointed out, most economists failed to predict the crisis of 2007-08.

In a lecture to the American Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas argued that macroeconomics had succeeded in so far as the “central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes”.


Yet within five years the world faced its worst crisis since the 1930s.

The Economist Print 18 May 2017


When the Queen asked asked an academic at the LSE why the economics profession had failed to predict the credit crunch, she raised a topic which continues to resonate. 

Although many answers have been given to Her Majesty’s question, I suspect that none of them has really settled the issue. Her question is disarmingly simple, but the answer is not.

Gavyn Davies blog, February 10, 2011


2017-05-19

Tett: a sudden recession would create a nasty shock.

The key point is this: 

with so much growth already baked into financiers’ forecasts a sudden recession would create a nasty shock.

Gillian Tett, FT 18 May 2017

2017-05-15

The Economist: How the 2007-08 crisis unfolded

Take the cash, hide it in the mattress and wait for the next/coming stock market storm to pass.

I Sverige drömmer knappt någon om euron längre, utom möjligtvis Liberalerna – och debattören och författaren Per Wirtén.

Joseph Stiglitz, före detta chefekonom på Världsbanken och rådgivare till amerikanska regeringar, tvingas i sin nya bok Euro – hur en gemensam valuta hotar Europas framtid, konstatera att en fullständig ”brist på empati” präglar eurons politiska förespråkare.

Per Wirtén drömmer om ett enat, federalt Europa, ett Europas förenta stater. Kärnan i den drömmen är just den euro som Stiglitz sågar med fotknölarna.

Känslan är stark av att Wirtén inte greppat vidden och djupet av den katastrof som eurosystemet faktiskt ställt till med. Och hans lösning är att göra EU:s institutioner mäktigare.





Mr Stiglitz presents the euro story as mostly tragedy: 

“It was created with the best of intentions by visionary leaders whose visions were clouded by an imperfect understanding of what a monetary union entailed.” 






2017-05-14

In 2016, Germany ran a current-account surplus of roughly $ 297 billion, or 8.6% of GDP

Changing the exchange rate would not diminish the incentive for Germans to save.

In the current European environment of near-zero interest rates, there’s little risk that additional public investment will crowd out private investment. 


Barry Eichengreen, Project Syndicate 14 May 2017

2017-05-12

Beleaguered pessimists of the eurozone, searching for the next threat on the horizon, have settled on Italy

have settled on Italy as the likeliest source of doom, or at least disorder.

Weaker banks struggle with consequences of a long recession and loose lending


FT 11 May 2017

A bird flu called H7N9

Across China, the virus that could spark the next pandemic is already circulating. It's a bird flu called H7N9.

What H7N9 can't do-yet-is spread easily from person to person, but experts know that could change. 

The longer the virus spends in humans, the better the chance that it might mutate to become more contagious-and once that happens, it's only a matter of time before it hops a plane out of China and onto foreign soil, where it could spread through the air like wildfire.

The World Is Not Ready for the Next Pandemic
Time Magazine, 4 May 2017