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2015-08-22

Ständigt denne Lucas

Rational expectations. Ha.

Romer roots the sorry state of academic macroeconomics in a battle between Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent

Martin Sandbu, FT 17 Augusti 2015

For months, Paul Romer, the economics professor, has been on a crusade against what he calls “mathiness”, by which he means deliberately abstruse use of mathematics to camouflage political arguments by economists. 

News

För en yngre generation som inte förstår det här med den ständiga vesslan finns här en länk till Ture Sventon.

2015-08-21

Schengen Collapse?




The renewed policy move comes after Germany said this week that it would receive 800,000 asylum applications this year, and gave warning that the EU’s asylum rules must be reformed or the border-free Schengen Area would face collapse.

FT August 20, 2015







2015-08-17

Greece Extend and Pretend again "Elementary, My Dear Watson!"

Ms Merkel told ZDF television on Sunday she had “no doubts” that the IMF come on board. 

She ruled out a haircut on Greek debt, but said there was “room for manoeuvre” for debt relief through loan extensions and lower interest.

Financial Times 16 August 2015



In economicspresent value, also known as present discounted value, is the value of an expected income stream determined as of the date of valuation.


"Elementary, My Dear Watson!"

   Probably the most famous of Sherlock Holmes quotes, "Elementary, my dear Watson," was never spoken by Sherlock Holmes.  That is to say that Sir Arthur Conan Doyle never wrote those exact words for his fictional detective Sherlock Holmes.  However, Sherlock Holmes does say the words "elementary" and "my dear Watson" quite often. Below are a just few examples.


2015-08-16

Greece Extend and Pretend

Avtalet om nödlån på totalt 86 miljarder euro klubbades på fredagen av parlamentet i Aten och godkändes senare av eurozonens finansministrar.

Grekland skall i huvudsak använda dessa pengar för att betala räntor och amorteringar till EU och ECB. Den grekiska staten skall under den treåriga låneperioden ha ett betydande överskott i sina primära finanser.

Men, läser jag i SvD,  Internationella valutafonden (IMF) sätter sig på tvären. Även om ordförande Christine Lagarde hyllar Greklands samarbetsvilja och reformerna som ingår i avtalet skräder hon inte orden när det kommer till statsskuldens långvariga effekt:

– Jag står fast vid att skulden har nått ohållbara nivåer och att Grekland inte kan lösa skuldkrisen på egen hand, säger Lagarde i ett uttalande.

För att Grekland ska ta sig igenom skuldkrisen krävs det därför att ”betydande skuldlättnader, i mycket större utsträckning än parterna har övervägt hittills” när det tredje stödpaketet utvärderas för första gången i höst.

http://www.svd.se/imf-ser-faror-i-nytt-greklandsavtal/om/greklandskrisen

John Redwood:

Extend more loans and pretend that you will get your money back has been acting as a policy for years. It has become a lazy habit which the markets and the borrowers like. Once again as Homer nods Mrs Merkel looks the other way. 

The aim may be to defer the continuing Greek crisis for 3 years to her successor.

http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2015/07/12/extend-a-and-pretend-day/


Extend and Pretend

https://www.google.se/?gws_rd=ssl#q=extend+and+pretend

News 


2015-08-14

Romano Prodi Some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

“I am sure the euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created.”

– Romano Prodi, EU Commission president, December 2001

Prodi and the other leaders who forged the euro knew what they were doing. They knew a crisis would develop, as Milton Friedman and many others had predicted. 

It is not conceivable that these very astute men didn’t realize that creating a monetary union without a fiscal union would bring about an existential crisis. 

They accepted that eventuality as the price of European unity. 

But now the payment is coming due, and it is far larger than they probably anticipated.


Federalism

IMF wants debt reduction for Greece

Eager not to repeat what many see as one of myriad mistakes it and others made in Greece, IMF staff have for months insisted that the rescue has to include not just a series of difficult reforms by Athens, but also what in countries such as Germany would be a politically awkward agreement to help reduce the burden of Greece’s more than €300bn sovereign debt pile, most of which is now owed to other eurozone governments and taxpayers.

http://www.nejtillemu.com/imfeuro.htm#0814ft

2015-08-13

Riksbanken förlorar på sjunkande guldpris. Tomas Fischer kritiserade redan 2007

Priset på guld fortsätter falla snabbt. För Riksbanken som håller en guldreserv på nästan 126 ton guld svider prisslakten på den ädla metallen. 15 miljarder kronor är borta sedan 2011, och raset kan fortsätta.

SvD Näringsliv 13 augusti 2015


Tidigare har även finansmannen Tomas Fischer kritiserat Riksbanken för utförsäljningen av guldreserven.

DI 2009-01-07 

Senaste nytt hos Rolf Englund blog, IntCom och nejtillemu